Now that the general-election campaign is underway, my Party ID/Sample Weighting website is up and running again.  My first entry of the year looks at the newly released Obama-McCain Wisconsin poll.  As we know, many polls over the years appear to have oversampled Republicans (especially in 2004), but this new Wisconsin poll appears to have oversampled Democrats (though no one can know for sure, at least until November).

http://courses.ttu.edu/hdfs3390-reifman/ weighting.htm

There's an excellent diary at Kos, where someone provides maps of what he/she considers some of the most contestable districts:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/17/14513/997

I added the following comments...

I wrote this at Kos and thought I'd share it here, too:

http://dailykos.com/story/2004/10/28/132557/30

There is a very simply lesson in all of this. If we get the turnout, we will win--Chris

Steve Soto at The Left Coaster is on the beat and, yes, Gallup oversampled Republicans again (what a shock?).

In fact, based on some D-R-I internals I saw at Daily Kos, Kerry would be winning under a turnout model of the 2000 exit polls:

Bush (.39 X 9 among D's) + (.35 X 93 among R's) + (.26 X 44 among I's) = 3.51 + 32.55 + 11.44 =

47.5

Kerry (.39 X 88 among D's) + (.35 X 5 among R's) + (.26 X 47 among I's) = 34.32 + 1.75 + 12.22 =

48.29

Click here for my sample-weighting website.

Mark Blumenthal over at Mystery Pollster recently wrote up a large piece focusing on the distinction between the Washington Post and ABC polling results, even though the two media outlets work closely together.

In explicating the WP/ABC methods, it became clear that those methods are highly similar to Gallup's.  WP/ABC uses a series of questions similar to Gallup's to determine likely-voter status and, though WP/ABC "partially" weights on party ID, there's still room to have a large R/D discrepancy from previous presidential exit polls.  

Thus, it's no coincidence that the latest WP (Bush up 51-45), ABC (Bush up 51-46), and Gallup (Bush up 52-44) polls have similarly favorable readings for Bush, even though many other polling outfits have the race either tied or with Kerry slightly leading.

http://www.pollingreport2.com

To see Blumenthal's original report and a comment of mine where I address these issues in greater detail (posting as Alan R.), go to:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/one_less_myster.html

The following article presents a nice overview on pollsters' inability (by law) to survey people over cell phones and the potential implications for survey results.  

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=159178

The LA Times poll showing Bush ahead 51-46 would show a tie if weighted to the party composition in the 2000 exit polls.  The poll's internals are at:

http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2004-09/14455239.pdf

Bush gets 7% of Democratic support (multiplied by the D weight of .39 = 2.73), 94% of Republican support (multiplied by the R weight of .35 = 32.9), and 50% of Independents (multiplied by the I weight of .26 = 13), for a grand total of 48.63.

Kerry gets 90% of D support (x .39 = 35.1), 4% of R support (x .35 = 1.4), and 45% of I support (x .26 = 11.7), for a grand total of 48.20.

This jibes well with Rasmussen's latest reading, Bush up 48-46.

This election is going to come down to the turnout, folks.

Polls often provide information on the Bush-Kerry "horse race" separately within Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.  Bush will be winning heavily (85-90%) among R's, Kerry will be winning heavily (around 85%) among D's, and I's could be going in either direction.  Around 25-35% of respondents in a poll will be listed as Independents.

To the extent that readers think all 25-35% of Independents can be characterized as "swing voters," "middle of the road," "nonpartisan," "up for grabs," etc., they would be wrong...